变化环境下塔里木河径流变化及其影响因素分析-水土保持通报.pdfVIP

30 4 Vol. 30, No.4 2010 8 Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation Aug. , 2010 1, 2 1 3 王启猛 , 张捷斌 , 付意成 ( 1. , 830011; 2. , 100049; 3. , 100044) : 50 a , , , 50 a , 20 90 , , , , , , , ; , , , : ; ; ; : A : 1000 288X(2010) 04 0099 05 : S157, TV 121 Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors Under Changing Environment in Tarim River 1, 2 1 3 WANG Qi meng , ZHANG Jie bin , FU Yi cheng ( 1. X inj iang I nst it ute of E cology and Geog r ap hy , CA S, Ur umq i, X inj iang 830011, China 2. Gr ad uate Schoo l of the CA S , B e ij ing 100049, Ch ina 3. Dep ar tment of Water R esour ces , Ch ina I nst it ute of Water R esour ces and H y dr op ow er R esearch I ns t it ute, B e ij ing 100044, Ch ina) Abstract: T hrough the analysis of nearly 50 year annual runoff data of T arim River, the evolution trend of runoff under changing environment is investigated. Possible impacts on the runoff process are discussed in the two aspects of climate change and human activities. Results show that under changing environment, the runoff process of Tarim River in nearly 50 years has been significantly changed. Under the influence of cli mate change characterized by temperature rising and precipitation increasing, runoff in headstream zone of Tarim River generally has an obvious increasing tendency. T emperature variation has little effect on regional evapotranspiration