山东省碳足迹与碳承载力的动态研究.docxVIP

生态与农村环境学报2013，29(2)：152—157Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment山东省碳足迹与碳承载力的动态研究肖玲，赵先贵，许华兴(陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院，陕西西安710062)摘要：为了解山东省碳排放与碳固定的平衡状况及其变化规律，对碳足迹方法进行改进，提出了碳承载力、净碳 足迹的概念和测算模型。利用改进的碳足迹方法对山东省的碳足迹与碳承载力动态进行研究，结果表明，2000～ 2010年，碳足迹从33 033．20万t上升至119 261．76万t，增幅为261．04％，年均增长23．73％，其中化石能源占总 碳足迹的91．58％～94．85％，可见，化石燃料消费的增加是导致碳足迹增长的主要原因。碳承载力从1 696．44万t 下降到1 588．01万t，降幅为6．39％，其中森林固碳量占80．97％～88．40％，森林成为最重要的碳承载力组分。净 碳足迹由31 336．76万t上升到117 673．75万t，增加275．51％。人均净碳足迹达全球气候变化目标的1．74～ 6．14倍，2002年以后一直高于中国人均和全球人均碳足迹，低于美国。单位面积净碳足迹也已达全球气候变化目 标的17．73～66．58倍。万元GDP碳足迹年均降低2．11％，说明山东在碳减排方面的政策措施有一定成效。尽管 如此，山东已成为国内碳排放大省，对气候变化有负面影响，碳减排任务很重。 关键词：碳足迹；碳承载力；净碳足迹；山东省中图分类号：F062．2；X22；X21 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673—483I(2013)02—0152—06Dynamics of Carbon Footprint and Carbon Carrying Capacity of Shandong Province．XIAO Ling，ZHAO Xian—gui， XU Hua—xing(College ofTourism and Environment，Shaanxi Normal University，Xi’an 710062，China)Abstract：In studying balance between carbon emission and carbon sequestration and its dynamics in Shandong Province， the carbon footprint method was modified，and new concepts of carbon carrying capacity and net carbon footprint were brought forth，and models for calculation of these two were built．Results of the study show that during the period from72000 to 2010 Shandong S carbon footprint increased by 261．04％or at a rate of 23．73％annually，that is，from33 033．20×104 t to 119 261．76×104 t．and its use of fossil fuel contributed 91．58％一94．85％to its total carbon foot． print，showing that the increased consumption of fossil fuel is the main cause of the growth of its carbon footprint．Howev— er，its carbon carrying capacity dropped from 1 696。44 X 104 to 1 588．01 X 104 t，or by 6．39％．Its forest carbon seques—tration made up 80．97％一88．40％of its total capacity，indicating that forest is the most important factor of the carboncarrying capacity．Its net carbon footprint increased from 31 336．76 X 104 to 117 673．75×104 t．or by 275．51％．making its net carbon foo