鄱阳湖洪水预报方案研制.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2014, 3, 479-485 Published Online December 2014 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2014.36059 Flood Forecasting Scheme for Poyang Lake 1 1 2 Guowen Li , Zhongwen Yu , Sunyun Lv 1 Hydrology Bureau of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 2 Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan Email: 6409909@163.com st th th Received: Sep. 1 , 2014; revised: Nov. 5 , 2014; accepted: Nov. 10 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Poyang Lake, located in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, is the area that bears fre- quent flood disasters. The development of flood forecasting scheme for the Poyang Lake is of great significance for the scientific flood dispatch and disaster reduction. This study analyzes the cha- racteristics of flood and disaster of the Poyang Lake. Related correlation analysis was carried out based on the actual measured water level of Xingzi station, water level at earlier stage of Xingzi station and Hukou station, rise rate, regional average precipitation, the difference of flows into five rivers and seven stations and outflow of Hukou station. The lake water balance and multi- factor correlation equation schemes were established for flood forecasting. The floods of the Poyang Lake could be scientifically forecasted by these two schemes with relative high accuracy. Keywords Poyang Lake, Flood Disaster, Forecast Scheme 鄱阳湖洪水预报方案研制