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《经济学人》Currencies 货币Currencies 货币 Green back 美钞归来 In a world of ugly currencies, the dollar is sitting pretty 在货币的丑人国里，美元算得上倾国倾城了 May 6th 2010 | From The Economist print edition JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES once likened investing to judging a beauty contest. For today’s currency investor, however, none of the main contestants looks that fetching. “It’s more like an ugliness contest,” says one hedge-fund manager. 约翰?梅纳德?凯恩斯曾经将投资比作选美比赛。但对于今天的外汇炒家来说，没有一个种子选手能吸引他们的眼球。“这更像是选丑比赛。”一位对冲基金经理说。 The dollar, for all its blemishes, is the least hideous-looking. So far this year it has risen against the other main currencies (the yen, pound and euro) that are traded internationally and held as reserves by central banks. It has risen most against the euro, which started the year at $1.43 but bought just $1.28 on May 6th (see chart). The euro has slumped in part because the Greek crisis makes it look a poor choice for reserve managers hoping to diversify their big dollar holdings. The variable quality of euro sovereign bonds is now much harder to ignore. Treasury bonds, with their liquid markets and unique issuer, look prettier. 美元，就算算上它全部的僻陋，也是最看得起眼的。今年年初到目前，美元对其他用于国际贸易结算和外汇储备的主要国际货币（日元，英镑和欧元）的汇率有所上涨。其中对欧元上涨的最多，年初汇率是1欧元兑1.43美元，5月6日为1欧元兑1.28美元（见图表）。欧元的暴跌，部分归咎于希腊危机使它在那些持有大量美元又希望外汇储备多样化的管理者眼中不再是一个好选择。以欧元计价的主权债券质量参差不齐的问题现在已不容忽视。因为市场的流动性和单一的发行者，美国国债看起来更加值得信赖。 图 货币 The case for a further drop in the euro against the dollar has more than just momentum to back it. Business cycles favour it: the euro-area economy is picking up speed again, but America’s recovery is more advanced. The pressure to tighten fiscal policy in some parts of the euro area will make it hard for the European Central Bank to even consider raising interest rates. A weaker euro also addresses the deeper cause of the present crisis: a lack of export competitiveness in the south of the currency zone. It does not help Greece, Portugal and the rest compete with Germany, but it at least gives their firms a chance against imports