外汇月报.pdfVIP

Global Viewpoint Issue No: 10/04 March 10, 2010 Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research at https://360. Fiscal Differentiation in FX Markets Thomas Stolper The impact of fiscal policy on FX markets is a thorny issue. While important in theory, practical thomas.stolper@ issues make the comparison of the fiscal stance between two countries almost impossible. +44 (0)20 7774 5183 Moreover, fiscal stimulus and a rising debt-related risk premium typically affect currencies in opposite ways. We create a Fiscal FX Slice and a Debt FX Slice and show that expansionary Themistoklis M. Fiotakis fiscal policy in general supports a stronger curr ency. The link between debt levels and FX is themistoklis.fiotakis@ +44 (0)20 7552 2901 more complex and seems to depend more on sustainability concerns, the expectation of fiscal contraction and the risk of monetisation of government debt. We apply this framework to the Fiona Lake UK and discuss the fiscal impact for a number of countries globally. Lastly, we have revised fiona.lake@ some forecasts in peripheral Europe. +852 2978-6088 1. Introduction Mark Tan mark.tan@ While the potential impact of fiscal policy on exchange rates is large, according to economic +1 (212) 357 7621 theory, in practice the issue is often neglected. One of the key problems is that comparison