计量经济学论文 LSE+approach+to+econometrics+amp;+CR.pdfVIP

Cambridge Journal of Economics 2005, 29, 179–205 doi:10.1093/cje/bei030 Economics as progress: the LSE approach to econometric modelling and critical realism as programmes for research Stephen Pratten* In the face of claims that economics is increasingly driven merely by fashion, this paper draws out certain similarities and differences between two self- consciously progressive and developmental research programmes—namely the LSE approach to econometric modelling and critical realism in economics. The argument is that, while these two programmes of research share a common point of departure and possess many common elements, what at root distinguishes them is their adoption of opposing philosophical orientations. The comparison enables both the nature of each programme, and the relevance of their common concerns, to be more easily appreciated and helps clarify the sort of evidence that would provide a basis for selecting one project over the other. Key words : Realism, Econometrics, Ontology JEL classifications: B4, B5, C5 1. Introduction Modern economics is driven very largely by fashion, with topics, themes, questions, categories appearing and disappearing without any clear line of progression.1 The natural sciences, by contrast, are recognised as supporting numerous sustained projects. Think in particular of medical research and the attempts to identify and Manuscript received 16 July 2001; final version received 2 June 2003. Address for correspondence : King’s College, London, Franklin-Wilkins Building, 150 Stamford Street, London SE1 9NN, UK; email: stephen.pratten@kcl.ac.uk. * King’s College, London. I should like to thank David Hendry and the participants in the Cambridge Workshop on Realism and Economics for useful comments on an