冕洞相关地磁Ap指数中短期预报方法研究 Medium and Short Term Forecasting of Ap Index Related to Coronal Holes.pdfVIP

0254-6124/2009/29(6)-545–07 Chin. J. Space Sci. Liu Siqing, Luo Bingxian, Zhong Qiuzhen, Dou Xiankang. Medium and short term forecasting of Ap index related to coronal holes. Chin. J. Space Sci., 2009, 29(6): 545-551 Ap ∗ 1,2 2 2 1 1 ( 230026) 2 () Ap , Æ Ap , Ap , , Ap . 27 , , Ap 27 ; SOHO/EIT Pch , Ap . , , Ap , Æ . Ap ; ; P 353 Medium and Short Term Forecasting of Ap Index Related to Coronal Holes LIU Siqing1,2 LUO Bingxian2 ZHONG Qiuzhen2 DOU Xiankang1 1 (School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026) 2 (Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences) Abstract Ap index is a daily measure of geomagnetic activity. In many reference atmospheric models, geomagnetic storm effects are modeled using Ap index as the driver of global density changes. Ap index is often used in making space mission plans because of the geomagnetic activity effects, and the forecasting of the Ap index plays an important role in space environment prediction. In the present study, the modified autoregressive model is used to forecast the Ap index 27 days ahead. In the modified model, the input data were reconstructed based on the 27-days periodicity of the solar rotation. The average absolute error between the forecasted and observed geomagnetic Ap index is 4.5. For short-term Ap forecasting (3-days ahead in this paper), a new forecasting index Pch derived from the SOHO/EI