国际贸易形势回顾与展望触底反弹.PDFVIP

Working Paper No. 2017 11 December 27, 2017 马涛：matao@ * 国际贸易形势回顾与展望：触底反弹 摘要：2016 年全球贸易经历了非同一般的低速增长。 2017 年上半年全球货物贸易呈反弹增长趋势，超过 了4 月份世界贸易组织（WTO ）预测的2.4% 的全球贸易量增速。虽然世界经济复苏的各种政策不确定性 依然存在，但是全球贸易触底反弹的态势已十分明朗。我们判断，2017 年全球货物贸易增速较2016 年将 出现强力反弹，贸易量增速将超过3.0% 。考虑到经济下行风险的集聚，同时也要避免被过于悲观的预期所 束缚，我们认为，2018 年全球货物贸易量增速会在 3.0%左右。中美双边经贸关系直接影响着全球贸易增 长。面对特朗普上台以来对华“起伏跌宕”的贸易政策，中美关系在磨合中不断向前推进，并日益走向成 熟。中国和美国之间爆发全面贸易冲突是不太可能的，但是在双边经济和贸易方面的摩擦会日益增多，这 些冲突也难以在短期内解决，而是需要循序渐进的调整过程。 关键词：国际贸易 增长预测 中美经贸关系 贸易冲突 * 马涛，经济学博士，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员，主要研究领域：国际贸易、全球价值链、低碳经 济等。本文出自 《2018 年世界经济黄皮书》。 1 / 13 International Trade: Developments and Prospects Ma Tao Abstract: Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to rebound in the first half of 2017 from its tepid performance in 2016. In the first half of 2017, the increase of global merchandise trade was much higher than the annual growth rate 2.4% predicted by WTO in April. The policy uncertainties of global economy recovery exist, but global trade is rebounding from the bottom significantly. We think that the global merchandise trade growth in 2017 will outstrip the level of that in 2016, and the trade volume growth rate will be more than 3.0%. Considering the downside risks agglomerate, and avoiding our basic assumptions too pessimistic, we estimate that the growth rate of global merchandise trade in 2018 could be around 3.0%. China-US trade and economic relations will affect the growth of global trade directly. Facing the volatile trade policies from Trump government, bilateral trade and economic cooperation between China and US will be a process of grinding. We believe that