广州市蚊虫密度与气候因素的相关性 精灵论文.docVIP

广州市蚊虫密度与气候因素的相关性 于德宪1，林立丰2，罗雷2，周文1，高璐璐1，陈清1，俞守义1 （1. 南方医科大学热带医学与公共卫生学院流行病系，广州 510515； 2. 广东省疾病预防控制中心，广州 510300） 摘要：目的 分析气候因素对蚊媒密度的影响，为蚊媒传染病的防控和监测提供科学依据。 方法 将 1995-2002 年广州市主要城区媒介蚊虫监测资料人工小时捕蚊数与同期的月平均 气压、月平均气温、月平均相对湿度、月平均绝对湿度、月平均蒸发量、月平均降雨量、月 日照时间、月平均风速等气候资料进行等级相关和多元回归。结果 广州市在连续 7 年里人 工小时捕蚊总数与同期的蒸发量、相对湿度、日照、温度、降雨量都存在正相关关系，而与 气压有负相关关系；而人工小时捕获白纹伊蚊数与同期的蒸发量、相对湿度、绝对湿度、日 照、温度、降雨量存在正相关关系，与气压存在负相关关系。在回归分析中，对人工小时捕 蚊总数有影响的仅绝对湿度一个因素，复相关系数为 0.835，决定系数为 0.697；而对人工小 时捕获白纹伊蚊数有影响的因素为日照、风速、绝对湿度和温度，复相关系数为 0.850，决 定系数为 0.723。结论 蚊媒密度受多种气候因素的影响，有效的预警因子可以从中提取。 关键词： 流行病学；蚊虫密度；气候因素；相关性 中图分类号：Q969.44 Correlation between mosquito density and climate factors in Guangzhou YU Dexian1, LIN Lifeng2, LUO lei2, ZHOU Wen1, GAO Lulu1, CHEN Qing1, YU Shouyi1 (1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515; 2. CDC of Guangdong, Guangzhou 510300) Abstract: Objective To demonstrate the correlation between mosquito density and climate factors so as to provide scientific evidence for preventing and monitoring mosquito-borne infectious disease. Methods The relationship between mosquito surveillance data and climate variables were analyzed by using rank correlation and multiple regression. Results There was a positive correlation between the number of captured mosquito and homeochronous evaporation capacity, relative humidity, absolute humidity, sunshine, temperature, precipitation (P0.05), and there was a negative correlation relation with atmospheric pressure(P0.05). Stepwise regression was used to screen main climate factors of influencing mosquito density. Only absolute humidity could enter regression equation. Correlation coefficient of the regression model is 0.835, and coefficient of determination is 0.697. Aedes albopictus density as dependent variable and climate factors as independent variable go to run stepwise regression analysis. The result shows that sunshine(x1), wind speed(x2), absolute h