级宏观课件4储蓄投资和金融体系.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Note that the 2010 debt figure, at 63.6% of GDP, is higher than at any time besides WW2, including all other wars. From the beginning of this long time series until about 1980, the data show a clear pattern: the debt-GDP ratio jumps up during wartime, and comes back down during peacetime. (Also, the Great Depression caused revenues to plummet, and led to a rise in the debt ratio during the 1930s.) There are two reasons why many economists believe it is appropriate to allow the debt ratio to climb during wars. First, it allows the government to keep tax rates smooth over time. Wars are expensive, and financing them solely with tax increases would be disruptive to the economy and would cause a substantial reduction in economic efficiency. Second, debt finance shifts part of the cost of the war to future generations. This is appropriate, one could argue, because future generations benefit when the government goes to war to defend the nation against foreign aggressors. The pattern visible throughout most of history breaks down around 1980, when the debt ratio started climbing despite the lack of a major war. This was due to the Reagan tax cuts, and growth in federal entitlement outlays during the 1980s. From 1992 to 2000, the longest expansion on record plus a strong stock market in 1995–2000 led to a surge in revenues, the first budget surpluses in many years, and a declining debt-GDP ratio. From 2001–2005, the ratio to start climbing again due to the Bush tax cuts, the 2001 recession, and the wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, and the War on Terror). The ratio shoots up dramatically in 2008–2010 due to the financial crisis and recession. Sources: prior to 1940, same as text 1940 to present, Table 7.1—FEDERAL DEBT AT THE END OF YEAR, Budget of the United States Government: Historical Tables Fiscal Year 2010, /usbudget/fy10/hist.html * It might be worth elaborating for a moment on “financial mark