欧洲主权信贷-希腊主权EDF暗示希腊经济喜剧下的乐观行为.pdfVIP

SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL SECTOR IN-DEPTH Sovereign Supranational 18 January 2018 Greece’s Sovereign EDF Implies Upbeat Next Act in Greek Economic Drama Since the last business day of 2017, improvement in market-based measures of Greece’s sovereign credit risk accelerated notably. The country’s sovereign five-year EDFTM (Expected Default Frequency) measure declined from 1.94% on December 29 to 1.36% on January 17.1 Contacts (Figure 1.) This drop of nearly 30% took less than three weeks, compared to a slide of 34% Dana Gordon +1.212.553.0398 Assc Dir-Senior Editor over the prior six months. It means that investors recently became significantly more upbeat dana.gordon@ on the unlikelihood that Greece’s sovereign would default during the next five years. Irina Baron +1.212.553.4307 Encouraging this new attitude was Monday’s approval by Greece’s parliament of the further Associate Director irina.baron@ economic reforms demanded by its creditors. This is seen to clear the way, possibly later this year, for the country’s exit from its bailout regime. Freedom from the latter, if approved by Reginald White +1.212.553.4184 Research Analyst the creditors, is expected to make life easier for the Greek populace, who have been suffering reginald.white@ f