我国公路交通伤亡问题的现状分析.docVIP

我国公路交通伤亡问题的现状分析 王学堂 [长安大学 西安 710064] 摘要：根据公开发布的伤亡数据，本文首先以简图的形式给出了80年至今的伤亡情况，其中曲线2显示的交通死亡人数是一种潜在的分析对象。本文对现在统计、上报、公布交通伤亡数据业务的不足作了简要分析。分别对城市交通伤亡、收费道路交通伤亡、乡村和山区非收费道路交通伤亡提出了相应的数学描述模型，提出了收费路伤亡高发期和稳定期的观点和数学模型。提出问题、分析问题是为了解决问题，作者提出了交通伤亡责任追究制和平等竞争进行交通科研的思想。本文感谢政府对交通伤亡问题的重视，但也指出行政管理的效果非常有限，应该根据不同情况进行技术型专业管理。如果可能，作者也将提出解决交通伤亡问题的具体技术方案参与平等竞争。 关键词：交通伤亡 数学描述 高发期 稳定期 责任追究 平等竞争 The Current Analysis of Transport Casualty for Our Country Wang Xuetang [Chang’an university xi’an 710064] Abstract：Depending on the casualty data released, the treatise sets up the casualty condition figure in lines from 80 age to now firstly, and the line 2 which shows unusual death number in transport is a hidden objective to analyse transport policies. The treatise has briefly analyzed the defects of current data in investigating, reporting and releasing. The treatise has separately provided the analysis math. model for urban traffic, tolling road transport and untolling road of village and mountain area casualties and presented the viewpoint and math. model about the term of occurring frequently and stably for tolling road casualty, which gave the new thought to analysis transport casualty. Presenting and analyzing casualty problems are to solve them, therefore, the author set up the attitudes in science and research with the trace ruler on duty and open competition in the target of transport casualty. The treatise thinks for our government to pay attention to transport casualty, but it most point out that the effect of attention is very limited. It is important that the science and technology methods are used for different conditions in special. If it was possible that the author would provide the concrete technology method to solve transport casualty to take part in open competition. Key worlds: Transport casualty Math. description The term of occurring frequently The term of occurring stably The trace ruler on duty Open competition 像孪生兄弟一样，在公路交通建设飞速发展的同时，交通伤亡问题越来越严重，政府似乎无计可施；近几年来，关注