CHAPTER 5 Probability Review of Basic Concepts 商务统计学概论(英文第四版) 教学课件.pptVIP

CHAPTER 5Probability: Review of Basic Concepts to accompany Introduction to Business Statistics fourth edition, by Ronald M. Weiers Presentation by Priscilla Chaffe-Stengel Donald N. Stengel ? 2002 The Wadsworth Group Chapter 5 - Learning Objectives Construct and interpret a contingency table Frequencies, relative frequencies cumulative relative frequencies Determine the probability of an event. Construct and interpret a probability tree with sequential events. Use Bayes’ Theorem to revise a probability. Determine the number of combinations or permutations of n objects r at a time. Chapter 5 - Key Terms Experiment Sample space Event Probability Odds Contingency table Venn diagram Union of events Intersection of events Complement Mutually exclusive events Exhaustive events Marginal probability Joint probability Conditional probability Independent events Tree diagram Counting Permutations Combinations Chapter 5 - Key Concepts The probability of a single event falls between 0 and 1. The probability of the complement of event A, written A’, is P(A’) = 1 – P(A) The law of large numbers: Over a large number of trials, the relative frequency with which an event occurs will approach the probability of its occurrence for a single trial. Chapter 5 - Key Concepts Odds vs. probability If the probability event A occurs is , then the odds in favor of event A occurring are a to b – a. Example: If the probability it will rain tomorrow is 20%, then the odds it will rain are 20 to (100 – 20), or 20 to 80, or 1 to 4. Example: If the odds an event will occur are 3 to 2, the probability it will occur is Chapter 5 - Key Concepts Mutually exclusive events Events A and B are mutually exclusive if both cannot occur at the same time, that is, if their intersection is empty. In a Venn diagram, mutually exclusive events are usually shown as nonintersecting areas. If intersecting areas are shown, they are empty. Intersections versus Unions Intersections -