管理学（双语）chap4 Decision Making.pptVIP

6 - 1. The Decision-Making Process P156 2. The Manager as Decision Maker P161 3. Decision Making for Today’s World P175 Teaching Objectives 1. Define decision and decision-making process. 2. Master the eight steps in the decision-making process. 3. Contrast the perfectly rational and boundedly rational approaches to decision making. 4. Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them. 5. Differentiate the decision conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty. Focal and Difficult Points 1. To master the eight steps in the decision-making process. 2. To identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them. 3. To differentiate the decision conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty. 1. Decision Making (cont.) 1.2 Decision-Making Process (cont.) Step 4 - Developing Alternatives ● Identifying viable alternatives - Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem. Step 5 - Analyzing Alternatives ● Appraising each alternative’s strengths and weaknesses - An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3. 决策树法 决策树法的基本模型 计算各种状态下的期望值 □高价的期望值= 【90×0.25+75×0.5+60 ×0.25】 = 75（万元） □平价的期望值= 【96×0.25+72×0.5+56 ×0.25】 = 74（万元） □低价的期望值= 【100×0.25+60×0.5+46 ×0.25】 = 66.5（万元） 2. The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.) 2.4 Decision-Making Styles Directive Use minimal information and consider few alternatives. Analytic Make careful decisions in unique situations. Conceptual Maintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making decisions. Behavioral Avoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions. Exhibit 6–14 Overview of Managerial Decision Making 3. Decision Making for Today’s World Guidelines for making effective decisions: Understand cultural differences. Know when it’s ti