Persistence of anomalous moisture conditions in the interior plains of North America英文文献.pdfVIP

JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, VOL. 6, 485-494 (1986) 551.501.45:551.577.38(7) PERSISTENCE OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR PLAINS OF NORTH AMERICA E. 0. OLADIPO Department of Geography, Ahmadu Bell0 University, Zaria, Nigeria AND F. K. HARE Department of Geography, Universiv of Toronto, Toronto, Canada M5S 1A 1 Received 3 May 1985 Revised 18 February 1986 ABSTRACT Mean growing season (April-September) climatic conditions in the Interior Plains of North America, as measured by the Bhalme and Mooley drought index, were subjected to the length of runs (Gold), chi-squared and autocorrelation tests of dependence. Only a maximum of about 3 per cent of the total variation in the seasonal drought in any year is explained by the previous year. Based on the results from the three tests, it can be concluded that the mean seasonal moisture conditions during the growing season in the region can be considered to be an independent time process. In other words, the series of the seasonal drought index, statistically speaking, cannot be distinguished in its sequential pattern of occurrence from a random series. KEY WORDS Drought persistence length-of-runs chi-squared and autocorrelation tests of dependence INTRODUCTION The question as to whether a given moisture condition may persist from one year to the next, especially in ti