[理财]投资理财的步骤与案例讨论.pptVIP

投資理財的步驟 一、Determine return and risk objectives and constraints ☆如何決定報酬率 Required return and desired return 報酬率的計算 報酬率的陷阱 高報酬高風險 ☆如何了解自己的投資限制TTLLU Required return and desired return 十年後想出國讀書 : 明年後想去歐洲旅行: 報酬率的計算 ☆HPY 持有期間報酬率 ☆EAY 年化報酬率 考慮複利效果 (1+HPY)^365/t -1 不考慮複利效果 HPY*360/t ☆EAR 連續複利報酬率 (1+periodic interest rate)^compounding times -1 報酬率的陷阱 ☆HPY→EAY GIPS規定一年以下的報酬率不允許年化 ☆現金流量足以扭屈報酬率 高報酬高風險 ☆如何衡量自己所能承受的風險 - Ability Willingness Sources of wealth Measures of wealth Stage of life ☆決定風險目標 - σ 、β 、ρ σ愈高 波動度愈大 標準差的定義- 1.65 σ、1.96 σ、2.58 σ 如何計算投資組合(σp)的標準差- Wa Wb σa σb 何種組合會使σp最小?最大? Sharpe ratio 愈高 愈好 Sortino ration 愈高 愈好 如何了解自己的投資限制TTLLU Time horizon Tax :在台灣，資本利得免稅 個人所得稅稅率6%~40% 6% 370,000元以下 13% 990,000元以下 21% 1,980,000元以下 30% 3,720,000元以下 Liquidity: transaction costs… Legal and regulatory Unique circumstance 二、Define appropriate investment strategy Aggressive- Passive- 三、Formulate market expectation ☆Cyclical indicators Leading: stock price(平均有4個月的領先) Coincident: Lagging: ☆Inflation interest rate Negative relationship with bond price Uncertain relationship with stock price ☆Business cycle ☆Business cycle Initial recovery: bond price ↓ stock price↑rapidly Early expansion: bond price↓ stock price↑ interest rate↑ Late expansion: bond price↓ stock price↑ interest rate↑但 risk ↑ Slowdown: bond price↑ stock price↓ inventory level↓ Recession: short interest rate↓ bond price↑ stock price↑(anticipating the end of the recession) ☆Business cycle-全循環期至少15個月 四、Process asset allocation 94% of variability of total portfolio return and more than 100% of the long term portfolio performance is explained by strategic asset allocation. 案例計算 十