基于地理探测器的天津市生态用地格局演变.docVIP

基于地理探测器的天津市生态用地格局 演变 賴噩魁陈树登 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院辽宁师范大学海洋经 济与可持续发展研究中心河北安国中学 生态用地是衡量区域生态系统健康和安全的土地单元。认识和探讨生态用地时空 分布和形成机理对城市制定土地管理策略和引导城市可持续发展只有深远意义。 运用重心转移模型、核密度估计、地理探测器和生态系统服务价值系数法等，综 合分析2000-2014年天津市生态用地质量及生态用地时空演变特征，并探讨其 形成机理。结果表明：（1）天津市生态用地呈持续减少趋势，其中滨海新区表现 最明显;生态用地转移对象主耍为建设用地。（2）生态用地重心落在天津市中东 部，地理位置上呈先向南移后向北移，空间分布不均衡性进一步加剧。（3）天 津市生态用地核面积集中分布在北部和东部，iL呈减少趋势。（4）地理探测器 结果显示社会经济因素对生态用地变化的解释力高于自然因素，解释力最高的 3个要素为一产比重变率（0.79）〉总人口变化率（0.73）〉二产比重变率 （0.61），区域产业结构和人口数量对天津市生态用地变化影响强度最大。（5） 天津市牛.态用地动态度变化均为负值，牛.态系统服务价值呈逐年减少趋势，其 中水域群落创造的生态系统服务价值最高。 关键词： 生态用地;地理探测器;生态系统服务价值;驱动力;天津扪 基金：W家自然科学基金Pattern Evolvement of Ecological Land in Tianjin Based on Geogdetector LI Ying FENG Yu PENG Fei CHEN Shu-deng College of Urban and Environmental Science， Liaoning Normal University; Liaoning Normal University Marine Economic and Sustainable Development Research Center; Hebei Anguo High School; Abstract： Ecological land is a unit of land that measures the health and safety of a regional ecosystem. Understanding and discussing the spatial and temporal distribution of ecological land use and its formation mechanism have far-reaching significance to the city in formulating land management strategies and guiding the sustainable development. Using shift model, kernel density estimation, geographical detectors and ecosystem service value coefficient method and so on， the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of ecological land use and ecological land use in Tianjin during 2000-2014 are analyzed and their formation mechanism is discussed. Results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2014， (1) The ecological land in Tianjin shows a continuous decreasing trend, of which New Coastal Region has the most obvious performance; the main target for the transfer of ecological land is construction land. (2) Middle East area becomes the main ecological center of Tianjin, and it was unstable from south to north and leads to distribution imbalance further more. (3) The area of ecological land of Tianjin was mai