[经管营销]2025年世界经济展望.pdfVIP

The world economy in 2025 Macro-Economic Projections and the Role of Asia Lionel Fontagné Paris School of Economics (Université Paris 1) and CEPII The world economy in 2025 Lionel Fontagné Motivation • What we don’t know about world trade at the 2025 horizon: • Detailed composition of exports: ▫ A given product exported by a given country to a given market ▫ Large churning of exporters ▫ Specialisation by product unpredictable 2 The world economy in 2025 Lionel Fontagné Motivation • Evidence on extensive and intensive margins of world trade at HS6 level ▫ Intensive: increase in the value of existing trade flows ▫ Extensive positive: value of new trade flows ▫ Extensive negative: value of disappeared trade flows • 200 countries trading in 5,000 products bilaterally • Overwhelming proportion of zeros • Restriction to cases where a country declares exporting a given product to at least one market 3 The world economy in 2025 Lionel Fontagné Motivation • Intra-EU excluded • 75 million potential trade flows in 1994 ▫ 3.7 million non zeros • 100 million potential trade flows in 2007 ▫ 5.5 million non zeros • Corresponding to: ▫ 3.3 million new flows… ▫ 1.6 million destroyed flows… ▫ … over the period 4 The world economy in 2025 Lionel Fontagn