西班牙对外银行刘利刚教授宏观预测分析报告.pdfVIP

ChinaWatch Economic Research Department January 2009 China’s real GDP growth decelerated to 6.8% in Q4 2008 on sharp contraction in external demand. Despite the extremely difficult conditions, China still managed to grow by 9.0%, the highest growth rate among the major economies in the world. Given its massive fiscal stimulus package, ample room for further monetary ease, and credible institutions, we remain optimistic that a growth rate close to its potentials can still be achieved in 2009. Closing date: January 22, 2009 1. Executive Summary 2 2. Recent Economic Developments 3 3. Economic Policy and Outlook 18 4. Appendix: China Statistical Table 27 Box 1) The impact of global slowdown on China’s exports 5 2) Export slowdown and the unemployment problem in China 8 3) Why a stable exchange rate should be in China’s interest at this juncture? 16 4) Why are we optimistic that China will be able to grow 8% in 2009? 20 Publication coordinator: Alicia Garcia-Herrero alicia.garcia-herrero@.hk Chief Emerging Market Economist This publication was prepared by: Li-Gang Liu lliu@.hk Chief Economist for Greater China Andrew Tsang andrew.tsang@.hk Principal Economist Economic Research Department