基于滞后中介效应模型的谋杀率影响因素的国 际比较分析.pdfVIP

Advances in Social Sciences 社会科学前沿, 2015, 4(3), 185-192 Published Online September 2015 in Hans. /journal/ass /10.12677/ass.2015.43027 International Comparative Analysis of Factors Affecting the Homicide Rate Based on the Lag Mediation Effect Model Fang He, Shumin Zhou, Hengqing Tong Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei Email: 807950310@ th rd th Received: Sept. 10 , 2015; accepted: Sept. 23 , 2015; published: Sept. 28 , 2015 Copyright © 2015 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Based on the relevant data of the World Bank and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, using the intermediary effect analysis model, this paper analyzes the effects of income gaps and the unemployment rates on murder rates of 20 countries, and compares the differences on the impact of various factors on the crime rate in different countries. Due to the impact of the widen- ing income gap on the murder rate may not appear in the same year, the original data of income gap and unemployment rate may be dealt with by leading or lagging. Besides, two paths with me- diating variables of income gap or unemployment in the model are adopted to analyze the differ- ences in national homicide rates. The results show that the income gap and unemployment with lagging data have significant positive correlation with homicide rates, but the effect of different national income gap and the unemployment rate on homicide rate is different in the path of the mediation effect model. When the country’s income gap is significantly associated with crime, the mediating ef