Bayesian approach to meta-analysis What can you gain你所能获得的荟萃分析的贝叶斯方法.pptVIP

Bayesian approach to meta-analysis. What can you gain? Mateusz Nikodem CASPolska Association 19-th Cochrane Colloquium, Madrid, Oct 2011 Outline On variety of statistical methods Differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) approach Most useful applications of Bayesian approach eBayesMet (Nov 2009 - Oct 2011) Partners: CASPolska Association - leader Queen Mary University of London AMC Amsterdam EMMERCE EEIG Main tasks: Systematic Reviews on statistical methods of meta-analyses Analysis of credibility of statistical methods Creating e-learning tool and with a guide, helping in choosing optimal method for conducting meta-analises. Variety of methods Plenty of statistical methods (Mantel-Haenszel, Peto, Inverse Variance, DerSimonian Laird, B?cher, etc.) are in use. Among them there exist Bayesian methods (rarely used in case of direct comparison, but frequently in case of indirect/network comparison) Bayesian method is NOT one particular formula or algorithm. It is rather wide statistician approach. Frequentist approach Classical methods are, usually based on algorithms using explicit formulas. main assumptionsof the model results of studies (usually RCTs) Transformations of input data Results of Meta-analysis Bayesian approach Bayesian approach - wide range of flexible methods based on the theory of conditional probability. How does it work? Main assumptions, establishing variables and relation between them Establishing prior distributions of the variables (can be non-informative) Inputing conditions, i.e. values obtained in observations Running the model (series of random simulations) Obtaining results of meta-analysis in required form Construction: Computation: Frequentist vs Bayesian approach ? Bayesian approach Frequentialist methods philosophy First: assumptions and construction then: inputing results of studies Construction based on the results of studies flexibility YES NO computation Makov Chain Monte Carlo simulati