The Regional Kendall Test for Trend趋势区域肯德尔试验.pptVIP

The Regional Kendall Test for Trend Dennis Helsel US Geological Survey Seasonal Kendall test for trend Most popular trend test in environmental studies Developed by Hirsch, Smith and Slack at the USGS in the 1980s Now used throughout the world Used for many media Software available from USGS since 1980s Seasonal Kendall test for trend Nonparametric test Detects monotonic trends, not just linear Provides a measure of overall slope (rate of change) Conducts trend test within each season, then combines to form one overall test Regional Trends ? Spatial differences may be of more interest than seasonal differences, especially for ground water or other media without seasonal sampling Would like an overall test of whether trends occur across an entire region composed of multiple sampling sites A formal test in addition to visual “up and down arrows” at multiple sites on a map The Regional Kendall test Substitute location for season and run the Seasonal Kendall test Trend is tested at each location, then tests combined to look for a consistent regional trend Trends in different directions at different sites will cancel each other out, leading to a conclusion of no consistent regional trend The Regional Kendall test Assumes similar amounts of data at each location Nonparametric Provides a slope estimate at each site, and one overall for the region Blatant knockoff of the Seasonal Kendall test! Example Trends in snowpack chemistry during 1993-2004 in the Rocky Mountain region, USA George Ingersoll USGS Field MethodsFull snowpack sample Sites selected free of local activity Temp physical characteristics measured Collected before annual melt begins Preserved frozen until analyzed for major ions, pH, SC, DOC, mercury, isotopes Sulfur Nitrogen Statistical methods Computed the Regional Kendall test in each of 3 sub-regions with different storm patterns and airsheds 54 sites in 3 sub-regions, 12 years NH4, NO3, SO4, snow depth Sub-regions evaluated for long-term trends in N