JP Morgan- 2011.2.18中国食品行业报告.pdfVIP

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 February 2011 Food For Thought China Staples: FY10 Results Preview and Risks to 2011 Estimates • 2H10 earnings hit by input costs but that is no surprise: We are China Staples looking for on average 19% y/y earnings growth for China staples Ebru Sener KurumluAC under our coverage in 2H10 compared to 17% achieved during 1H10. (852) 2800-8521 For most companies, we expect margin erosion to continue in 2H10 as ebru.sener@ well. As a result, we expect the staples space to be completing 2010 Jessica HongAC with 16% earnings growth on average vs 39% posted in 2009. (852) 2800-8559 • 2H10 sales growth generally in line with 1H10: We expect y/y sales jessica.ch.hong@ growth in 2H10 to be in line with 1H10. As a result we expect the J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited staples to complete 2010 with 25% sales growth on average. • Where we are different from consensus: Among our coverage we are 4-6% below Bloomberg consensus estimates for Tingyi, China Foods and China Mengniu. Two companies where we are above consensus are China Yurun and CRE. We believe China Yurun is likely to achieve our estimate. For CRE, the difference between consensus and our numbers could come from classification of one-of items, especially asset impairment charges. • 2011 earnings