蒋长流西方经济学讲座14.pptVIP

Tech. progress in the Solow model Tech. progress in the Solow model A new variable: A = labor efficiency Assume: Technological progress is labor-augmenting: it increases labor efficiency at the exogenous rate g: Tech. progress in the Solow model We now write the production function as: Tech. progress in the Solow model Notation: y = Y/LA = output per effective worker k = K/LA = capital per effective worker Production function per effective worker: y = f(k) Saving and investment per effective worker: s y = s f(k) Tech. progress in the Solow model (? + n + g)k = break-even investment: the amount of investment necessary to keep k constant. Consists of: ? k to replace depreciating capital n k to provide capital for new workers g k to provide capital for the new “effective” workers created by technological progress Tech. progress in the Solow model Tech. progress in the Solow model Steady-State Growth Rates in the Solow Model with Tech. Progress The Golden Rule黄金规则 资本积累的黄金律水平就是使得稳态有效人均消费水平达到最大的人均资本存量水平。图中的情形表明经济达到稳态时的k* kgold，因而存在资本的过度积累问题。 此时如果储蓄率可以降到sgold 的水平，那么稳态的人均消费将达到最大，从而实现国民福利的最大化。 布兰查德和费希尔（1998）对此有精确论述：“在资本存量超过黄金律的情况下，经济中的资本配置就不再是帕累托最优：每个人都可以通过减少资本存量而生活得更好。这种经济常常被称作‘动态无效’，它们过度积累了资本。” Evaluating the Rate of Saving Use the Golden Rule to determine whether our saving rate and capital stock are too high, too low, or about right. To do this, we need to compare (MPK ? ? ) to (n + g ). If (MPK ? ? ) (n + g ), then we are below the Golden Rule steady state and should increase s. If (MPK ? ? ) (n + g ), then we are above the Golden Rule steady state and should reduce s. Evaluating the Rate of Saving To estimate (MPK ? ? ), we use three facts about the China’s economy: 1. k = 5.5 yThe capital stock is about 5.5 times one year’s GDP. 2. ? k = 0.33yAbout 33% of GDP is used to replace depreciating capital. 3. MPK ? k = 0.66 yCapital income is about 66% of GDP Evaluating the Rate of Saving 1. k = 5.5 y 2. ? k = 0.33 y 3