用目前的科技解决未来50年的气候问题.pptVIP

What is a “Wedge”? Take Home Messages In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs “T, H” = can be applied to transport or heating sectors, $$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) * * * * This presentation is based on the “Stabilization Wedges” concept first presented in Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” S. Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004. 2 2 = 4 billion tons go out Ocean Land Biosphere (net) Fossil Fuel Burning + 8 800 billion tons carbon 4 billion tons go in ATMOSPHERE billion tons added every year Billions of tons of carbon “Doubled” CO2 Today Pre-Industrial Glacial 800 1200 600 400 billions of tons carbon ATMOSPHERE ( ppm ) (570) (380) (285) (190) Past, Present, and Potential Future Carbon Levels in the Atmosphere Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Historical emissions 0 8 16 1950 2000 2050 2100 Historical Emissions 1.6 Interim Goal Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Current path = “ramp” Historical emissions Flat path Stabilization Triangle 0 8 16 1950 2000 2050 2100 The Stabilization Triangle 1.6 Interim Goal Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Current path = “ramp” Historical emissions Flat path Stabilization Triangle 0 8 16 1950 2000 2050 2100 The Stabilization Triangle Tougher CO2 target ~500 ppm ~850 ppm Easier CO2 target 1.6 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Current path = “ramp” Historical emissions Flat path 0 8 16 1950 2000 2050 2100 Stabilization Wedges 16 GtC/y Eight “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emission