基于贝叶斯网络的地铁项目施工风险评价分析-analysis of subway project construction risk assessment based on bayesian network.docx

优秀毕业论文 精品参考文献资料 Abstract With the fast development of subway construction in China, the risk management of subway projects has become a subject which many scholars are researching intensively. During the construction stage, there exist many risk events and risk factors, and they take a really important role in the risk management. Because the influence caused by different kinds of risk factors and the complexity and uncertainty of specific construction surroundings, many problems the construction managers may encounter during the process of risk management must be solved. Therefore, using effective and practical ways to identify and evaluate the risk status can not only recognize the present construction risk status but also instruct subsequent work such as risk control and so on. Risk identification is elaborated, based on the analysis of types of risk accidents in construction of subways. Risk factors which can influence the risk standard has been organized and classified. And by analyzing subway accidents, risk factors can be classified. The risk factors’ degree of influence to the integrate construction stage can be measured in three dimensions, which are risk probabilities, risk loss and risk control. And based on TOPSIS method, more useful factors can be selected from various members of factors, thus establishing the evaluation index system. The Bayesian network can be utilized to solve problems concerning risk assessments in construction. According to characters of construction risks in subways, the whole risk standard can be considered in risk probability, risk loss and risk control and these three aspects determine the degree how construction risk will be. Assessments of risk probabilities of many risk factors can be finished on the basis of Bayesian network, and assessments of risk loss and risk control can be calculated using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. At last, conclusions and research results are mentioned and some work needed to be d