基于实物期权的稠油区块开发项目评价分析-evaluation and analysis of heavy oil block development projects based on real options.docxVIP

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基于实物期权的稠油区块开发项目评价分析-evaluation and analysis of heavy oil block development projects based on real options.docx

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基于实物期权的稠油区块开发项目评价分析-evaluation and analysis of heavy oil block development projects based on real options

英文摘要Subject：Researchonthe EvaluationofHeavy Oil BlockDevelopment ProjectBasedonRealOptionSpecialty：Technology Economy andManagement Name：ZhangBo (Signature)Instructor：LiuYongai(Signature)ABSTRACTAtpresent,ourcountry’seconomyisdevelopingveryquickly.Itneedsmoreenergy,especiallyoil.Buttheconventionaloilresourcewhichreservesinourcountryisnotenough,theexternaldependenceenhancesunceasingly.Butourcountryisrichintheresourceofheavyoil,thepotentialofheavyoildevelopmentisgreat.Theheavyoildevelopmenthashighuncertainlyandhighrisk,itisnecessaryforheavyoilblockdevelopmentprojecttoevaluatescientifically.Thispaperstudiestheexistingevaluationmethod.Throughthecontrastanalysis,realoptionmethodismoreobviousadvantagethanothermethod.Accordingtotherealoptionrangandthecharacteristicsofheavyoilblockdevelopmentproject,realoptionisappliedtotheevaluationofheavyoilblockdevelopmentproject.Atfirst,therealoptiontypeofheavyoilblockdevelopmentprojectisidentified.Second,Geskecompoundoptionpricingmodelisselectedforthepricingoftheheavyoilblockdevelopmentproject.JingLou126areaofHeNanoilfieldwhichisusedastherealevidenceillustratestheadvantageofrealoption.Atthesametime,singlewellisevaluatedandsensitivityanalysisismadeinthispaper.Accordingtosensitivityanalysis,thevolatilityisgreatereffectthantherisk-freerateintherealoptionvalue,verticalwellismoresensitivethanhorizontalwellinthevolatility.Abovetheseevaluationresultswhichtransferaclearmessagetotheinvestment managershavelaidagoodfoundationfor the realization of efficient developmentin our country’s heavy oil block developmentproject.Keyword:HeavyOilBlockDevelopment，Real Option，GeskeModelEvaluation Thesis:Application Study目录目录第一章绪论.............................................................................................................................11.1研究背景和意义........................................................................................................... 11.1.1 研究背景................................................................................