Chapter 22 - International Financial Management 现代财务相关管理英文版课件.pptVIP

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Chapter 22 - International Financial Management 现代财务相关管理英文版课件.ppt

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Chapter 22 - International Financial Management 现代财务相关管理英文版课件.ppt

* * 22 International Financial Management ?2006 Thomson/South-Western Introduction This chapter explores the factors that determine exchange rates, the ways to forecast future exchange rates, the aspects of foreign exchange risk, and the ways of managing that risk. It looks at the determinants of foreign currency exchange rates and considers options open to multinational firms who must compete globally in a currency marketplace characterized by rapid change in relative values. Factors Affecting Exchange Rates Supply and Demand Economic Conditions Inflation Interest rates Government trade policies Political stability Expropriation Theories of currency fluctuation IRP PPP ET IFE Absolute Relative Why Do Exchange Rates Fluctuate Over Time ? Foreign Exchange Terminology Check out the Global Forex Web site for foreign exchange terminology: /terminology.htm Absolute PPP: The Law of One Price Prices for a good will be the same after currency conversion. It holds loosely for commodities. Trade restrictions and taxes keep prices different between countries. Consider the “Big Mac” index. Relative Purchasing Power Parity Different rates of inflation will be offset by equal but opposite changes in expected future spot exchange rates. Less restrictive than absolute PPP If inflation is higher in Germany than in the United States, then the DM weakens relative to the U.S. dollar. PPP Analysis Check out the PPP analysis of living standards in developing countries on this Web site: /std/ppp1.pdf Expectations Theory The forward rate reflects the market expectation of the future spot rate. Provides an unbiased estimate of the future spot rate Implication for managers Exchange rate forecasts are provided free from the marketplace. Hedging is cost effective. International Fisher Effect Nominal (quoted) interest rates consist of a real interest rate plus the expected inflation rate. IFF holds that in equilibrium real interest rates will be equal in different countries. If not, th