环境变化对广东省渔业经济影响的实证分析-empirical analysis on the influence of environmental change on fishery economy in guangdong province.docx

A Research on Guangdong Provence’s Fisheries Development under Environment changeAbstractFisheries are playing more and more important role in economic development, international trade, food safety, human health and so on. Guangdong province has vast ocean, the fishery is also flourishing in recent years. However, with the rapid economic growth, the marine ecological and environmental pollution is being destructed very seriously day by day. This has been turned out to be major restriction for the development of fishery economy in Guangdong province. Thus, this Paper takes advantage of basic theories of environment economies and econometrics and recruits some research methodssuch as diagnoses，Information research，theory discuss and so on. This paper starts withanalyzing the relationship between environment and economy in Guangdong province. Based on the situation of environment and fishery economy of Guangdong province in the present, understanding the environment change will affect every aspect of fishery economy in Guangdong province. We empirically analyzed the relationship between environment and economy by means of econometric model and on basis of selective environmental index and economic index in Guangdong released from1987 to 2011.The parts ofdemonstration analysis are most important in this paper. First, by using cointegrate test，cointegrate relation between environmental index and economic index is analyzed to seek long-term equilibrium. Second, using ECM method, this paper describes ECM model to pursue short term dynamic relation. Then, using the Granger test to search the karma relationship between those variables. Finally according to the results of our empirical study, we summarize some conclusion and connect with the concrete situation in Guangdong province under the influence of changes in its environment, fishery economy development puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.This paper contains six chapters, the first chapter i