Optimum Currency Areas and the European Experience 国际金融英文教材.ppt

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Optimum Currency Areas and the European Experience 国际金融英文教材.ppt

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* * * * * * * * * Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 20-* Theory of Optimum Currency Areas (cont.) At some critical point measuring the degree of integration, the monetary efficiency gain will exceed the economic stability loss for a member considering joining a fixed exchange rate system. Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 20-* Theory of Optimum Currency Areas (cont.) Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 20-* Theory of Optimum Currency Areas (cont.) There could be an event that causes the frequency or magnitude of changes in aggregate demand to increase for a country. If so, the economic stability loss would be greater for every measure of economic integration between a new member and members of a fixed exchange rate system. How would this affect the critical point where the monetary efficiency gain equals economic stability loss? Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 20-* Theory of Optimum Currency Areas (cont.) Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 20-* Is the EU an Optimum Currency Area? If the EU/EMS/economic and monetary union can be expected to benefit members, we expect that its members have a high degree of economic integration: large trade volumes as a fraction of GDP a large amount of foreign financial investment and foreign direct investment relative to total investment a large amount of migration across borders as a fraction of total labor force Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 20-* Is the EU an Optimum Currency Area? (cont.) Most EU members export from 10% to 20% of GDP to other EU members This compares with exports of less than 2% of EU GDP to the US. But trade between regions in the US is a larger fraction of regional GDP. Was trade restricted by regulations that were removed under the Single European Act? Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 20-* Is the EU an Optimum