竞争下rd投资项目的价值研究-research on the value of r d investment projects under competition.docxVIP

摘要RD 投资项目价值的研究已经被广泛提出，目前的价值评估方法主要有：贴 现现金流方法、决策树方法、相机索取权分析法、和实物期权分析方法。实物期权 方法主要是将 RD 项目分成多阶段模型，目前最主要的模型是将 RD 投资过程分 为三阶段模型和两阶段模型。本文主要采用三阶段模型，运用美式期权的方法分析 竞争下 RD 项目的价值，并且给出了一个 RD 项目的价值评价模型。本文的内容 可以分为以下几个部分。第一部分介绍了研究背景和方法以及 RD 项目的特点和 RD 项目的主要评价 方法。第二部分总结了期权理论以及如何将期权理论应用于实物投资中，从而得到更 加符合实际的模型，接着讨论了实物期权的几种分析模型。第三部分从 RD 项目的诸多不确定性中分析 RD 项目的期权特性，并且分析 了 RD 投资项目的随机过程。第四部分在前人研究的基础上，将 RD 项目的投资过程分为 RD 阶段、中试 投资阶段、商业化阶段用美式期权的方法进行研究，构建了竞争下 RD 项目投资 的价值评价模型。第五部分对全文进行总结。关键词：实物期权，竞争，RD 项目投资，RD 项目价值，研究与开发AbstractThe RD investment projects have been proposed for several years. Now , the project value assessment method include : Discounted cash flow method 、Decision tree、 Obtain from the right camera analysis 、and real options . Real option approach is mainlydivided RD project process into a multistage model, the mainly model is RD is divided the RD project’s investment process into three stages model or two stage model in recently. In this paper , I choose three stage model , using the American option methodto analyses the value of the RD in competition ，and gives the evaluation model ofRD project’s value . This article is divided into the following sections.The first part introduces the research background and methods, and the characte- ristics of RD projects and the main evaluation of the RD investment projects.Part two summarizes the options theory and how to applied the theory to real investment situation, and get the more realistic model, than f discusses several real option models.The third analysis the features of the RD project option part of the R D projects from the many uncertainties, and analysis the RD investment projects’ random process.The fourth used American option method, divided the R D projects’ investm-ent process into RD stage、pilot investment phase、 the commercialization stage to study base on the previous, constructed the RD project investment value evaluation model with competitive.The fifth part is the summary of the full text.Keyword: Real Options, Competition,