甘肃岷县泥石流危险性评价分析-risk assessment of debris flow in min county, gansu province.docxVIP

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甘肃岷县泥石流危险性评价分析-risk assessment of debris flow in min county, gansu province.docx

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甘肃岷县泥石流危险性评价分析-risk assessment of debris flow in min county, gansu province

material resource, essential terrain and enough hydrodynamic, analyzed characterrisitics of disitribution and development of the debris flows disaster. According to the diversity, variability, complexity of the geological environment and conditions in Min County, debris flow gully formed a more complicated disaster “fuzzy”system from the formation, development to the disappearance by a lot of factors influence. The fouth part introduced fuzzy mathematics theory into the dangerons evaluation study of the debris flows. This paper which used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and referenced domestic relevant literature of Liu Xilin, Gongxue, Chen Wei, finally selected eight dangerons factors such as valleyrelative elevation，degree of vegetation cover and so on. It completed single gully riskassessment about the 90 debris flows in the Taohe valley of Min county and analyzed inherent and external causes of formation to the debris flows disaster based on natural and human ecnomical activities, assumed forecast analysis of the develeping trend of Min county debris flow disaster in future.The fifth part , based on analysing the mechanism of the mud-rock flow disaster , generally expounds the principle and characteristic of the catastrophe theory. Then, combining the mechanism of the mud-rock flow disaster with the catastrophe theory, it gave the regional dangerons evaluation of the six river basin with the Catastrophe Progression Method. The evaluation result is that: the areas belonging to high danger are the main stream river of the Taohe river basin (Town- Weixin), (Town-Xizhai), the middle and upper reaches of the Nanahe river basin (region of Hetuo) . The areas belonging to middle danger are Shili-Qinxu-Sigou-Mazichuan southern moutainous district, Puma-Shendu-lvjing eastern moutanious district. The area belonging to low danger is Mawu-Suolong eastern moutanious district. Eventally, it sumed up the merit and the scientific of the zonation of the debris-flow hazards