我国寿险业发展的实证研究——基于var模型的分析-empirical study on the development of life insurance industry in china - analysis based on var model.docxVIP

摘要时代浪潮推动经济变革，寿险行业在不断发展，潜力巨大。通常将影响寿险 发展水平的宏观因素分为两种：即人口环境因素和经济环境因素，相关分析表明， 前期寿险密度、居民人均储蓄存款、居民人均可支配收入、预期通胀率、年利率 水平和总抚养比是影响寿险发展的主要因素。前期寿险密度、居民人均储蓄存款、 预期通胀率和总抚养比对人均寿险保费收入，即寿险密度，具有比较显著的影响。 其中，前期寿险密度和预期通货膨胀率正向影响寿险密度，而居民人均储蓄存款 和总抚养比反向影响寿险密度。居民人均可支配收入和年利率水平对寿险密度影 响较小，且利率对寿险密度变化的贡献率在所有解释变量中最低（1.79%）。总 抚养比对寿险密度变化的贡献率较大（15.57%），很大程度上是由于老年抚养比 对寿险密度的显著影响。从行业角度分析，寿险行业应加快构建行业信用体系， 重塑行业的诚信形象；寿险公司要不断优化寿险产品种类和服务，为自身的发展 赢得更加广阔的空间；最根本的问题在于，寿险业应打破保险传统经营思维，不 断创新经营管理模式，实现整个产业的转型升级。关键词：寿险发展；影响因素；VAR 模型IAbstractTimes promote the change of economy. The life insurance industry is evolving and has huge potential. The macroeconomic factors that affect life insurance development level is usually divided into two kinds: namely the population environment and economic environment factors. Our analysis showed that the early stage of the life insurance density and per capita savings, per capita disposable income, expected rate of inflation, interest rate level and total raising ratio are the main factors affecting the development of life insurance. The early stage of the life insurance density, per capita savings, expected inflation and total raising ratio have more significant effect on the life insurance premium income per capita, which is the life insurance density. Among them, the life insurance density was positively influenced by the early stage of the life insurance density and expected rate of inflation, and per capita savings and total raising ratio reverse influence life insurance density. Per capita disposable income and interest rate level have small impact on the life insurance density, and the contribution rate of interest rate on life insurance density change in all explanatory variables is the lowest (1.79%). The contribution rate of the total raising ratio is larger (15.57%), largely because the elderly raising ratio significantly affects the life insurance density. From the perspective of industry, the life insurance industry should speed up the construction of industry credit system