第9篇 章 经济波动导论.ppt

利用货币政策稳定产出 Y P AD1 B SRAS2 A C Y2 LRAS AD2 但是，美联储可以通过增加总需求缓解这一冲击。 结果： P 被永久抬高， Y仍然在充分就业水平上。 本章总结： 1. 长期：价格是伸缩的，产出与就业总在自然率水平上，适用于古典理论。 短期：价格是粘性的，冲击会使产出与就业偏离其自然率水平。 2. 总需求与总供给： 一个分析经济波动的框架。 本章总结： 3. 总需求曲线向下倾斜。 4. 长期总供给曲线是垂直的，因为这时产出依赖于生产要素的供给与技术水平，而与价格无关。 5. 短期总供给曲线是水平的，因为价格是粘性的，它保持在预定的水平上。 本章总结： 6. 从短期看，对总供给与总需求的冲击造成了GDP与就业状况的波动。 7. 美联储可以运用货币政策，设法稳定经济。 本章作业 (p.244)问题应用：1、2、3。 Chapter 5 extends the analysis to a small open economy. NOTE: If you are planning on covering chapter 12 (Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy), then covering this chapter is highly recommended. Point out the recessions, where GDP growth is negative for two or more quarters. 1974:2 through 1975:2 1980:2 through 1980:4 1982:1 through 1982:4 1991:1 through 1991:3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis: Growth rate of real GDP (chained 1996 dollars) Note: Recession dates may not precisely match official NBER recession dates, but data here do match that used in the text. Classical macroeconomic theory is what we learned in chapters 3-8. This slide recaps an important lesson from classical theory, which stands in sharp contrast to what we’re about to cover now. …and, in an open economy, net exports. (See chapter 12.) The textbook explains different ways of thinking about the AD curve’s slope. Here’s one that I find works for students: An increase in the price level causes a fall in real money balances, and therefore a fall in the demand for goods services (because the demand for output is proportional to real money balances according to the simple money demand function that is implied by the quantity theory of money). For future reference (a bunch of slides later in this chapter), it will be useful to see how a change in M shifts the AD curve. The tops of p.244 and 245 give some simple intuition for the shift. Here’s the idea: With velocity fixed, the quantity equation implies that PY is determined by M. An increase in M causes an increase