运营管理第14版蔡斯IChap018.pptxVIP

ForeCASTING;Learning Objectives;The Role of Forecasting;Forecasting and Decoupling Point;Types of Forecasting;Components of Demand;Trends;Time Series Analysis;Model Selection;Forecasting Method Selection Guide;Simple Moving Average;Simple Moving Average Formula;Simple Moving Average – Example;Weighted Moving Average;Selecting Weights;Exponential Smoothing;18-17;Exponential Smoothing Example;Exponential Smoothing – Effect of Trends;Example – Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment;Choosing Alpha and Delta;Linear Regression Analysis;Example 18.2 – Least Squares Method;Example 18.2 – Calculat