麦格理股票分析——2016年GDP增长6.7中国工程监理行业深度市场调研前言.doc

麦格理股票分析——2016年GDP增长6.7中国工程监理行业深度市场调研前言 Please refer to page 14 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website .macquarie4/research/disclosures. CHINA Inside Market amp; Sector Performance (HK stocks) 2 Market amp; Sector Performance (China stocks) 3 Activity data watch 4 Policy outlook 75 Commodities space 6 Property market 7 Liquidity watch 8 Exchange rate 9 Industrial indicators 10 China in a snapshot 11 Macquarie China Macro Products 13 Data review and preview Date Indicator Actual MacQ Cons. Prev. Review 1-Mar NBS mfg PMI 49.0 49.3 49.4 49.4 Preview 8-Mar Exports, % yoy -- -12.0 -15.0 -11.2 8-Mar Imports, % yoy -- -10.0 -10.2 -18.8 8-Mar Trade bal., US$ bn -- 51 50 63 10-Mar CPI, % yoy -- 1.8 1.8 1.8 10-Mar PPI, % yoy -- -5.1 -4.9 -5.3 12-Mar Industrial prod. % yoy, -- 5.6 5.6 5.9 12-Mar FAI, ytd % yoy -- 8.5 9.4 10.0 12-Mar Retail Sales, % yoy -- 10.7 10.9 11.1 10-15 Mar M2, % yoy -- 13.7 13.7 14.0 10-15 Mar RMB loans, Rmb bn -- 1,300 1,200 2,510 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, March 2016 Analyst(s) Larry Hu PhD +852 3922 3778 larry.hu@macquarie Jerry Peng +852 3922 3548 jerry.peng@macquarie 7 March 2016 Macquarie Capital Limited Macro Monday Growth target set at 6.5-7% for 2016 ?? China stocks rallied heading into the Dual Conferences: Last week H- shares jumped 6.5% while A-shares also rebounded 3.9%. The rally was led by cyclical sectors such as materials and energy (Fig 1). Iron ore, steel and copper prices were up 11%, 2%, and 3% last week (Fig 22, 23, 25), while oil price has rallied 40% since the trough in mid-Jan. Interbank liquidity remained largely stable thanks to the RRR cut (Fig 33), while RMB was guided stronger on weaker USD (Fig 38). ?? China set growth target of 6.5-7% for 2016: Last Saturday, China announced that the growth target was set at 6.5-7% for 2016. It is in line with our expectation and a major