中国未观测信贷规模的变化：1978-2008年.docxVIP

中国未观测信贷规模的变化：1978-2008年【内容提要】未观测信贷是民间金融、地下金融、住户内部借贷活动形成贷款余额。农户、私营企业和个体工商经济单位从正规金融机构获得正规贷款方面有一定困难，依靠民间借贷、非正规拆借成为解决资金困难的必然选择。从信贷需求角度测估中国未观测信贷规模，对于判断未观测贷款在国民经济运行中的作用及影响具有重要的意义。本文基于经济与金融发展理论，采用国民经济核算和金融统计分析方法，估测中国1978-2008年的未观测信贷规模，实证结果发现，未观测信贷规模变化反映出中国信贷市场供给主体变化的特征，也揭示出中小金融机构主体的不足，私营个体经济融资依然主要依赖未观测金融的现实，提出深化农村金融体制改革，进一步培育中小型金融机构，建设多层次信贷市场，加强对未观测金融的监测核算和监管的政策建议。Non-observed loan(NOL)is the outstanding loan formed by informal financing, underground financing and individuals lending and borrowing at a time point. Since it is difficult to get loans from formal financial institutions, farmers, private entrepreneurs and individual economic units mainly depend on informal moneylenders. In this paper, the author measures the scale of NOL from 1978 to 2008 by using the methods of SNA and financial statistics based on the theory of financial and economic development. The author also analyzes the changing trend of NOL and discloses the evaluation characters of credit market and the lacks of small and medium-sized financial institutions that made the informal financing develop quickly in supporting private enterprises and individual economic units financing. Finally, the author suggests pushing the reform of rural financial system and fostering small and medium-sized banks to form a multi-level credit market and strengthen the research on how to account and measure non-observed financing and the financial regulation on informal financial activities.【关 键 词】未观测金融/未观测信贷/规模、私营经济单位????non-observed finance/non-observed loan/scale/private economic unitEE24UU1692338????JEL分类号：E51；E26　文献标识码：A　文章编号：1002-7246(2010)04-0040-11????一、引言????未观测金融是近年来金融理论界兴起的新范畴，它是从宏观金融与经济统计分析的角度对民间金融、地下金融、非法金融以及住户内部个人借贷等概念的统一规范。国外学者使用的术语比较统一，主要使用非正规金融(Informal Finance)一词，其内涵也包含了国内学者所指的民间金融和地下金融等形态(Ghate 1992；Montiel，Agénor and Haque 1993；Adams and Fitchett 1992)。针对中国民间金融问题进行专题调查研究的美国学者，将国内正规金融以外的金融形式界定为民间金融(Tsai，2001)。国外学者界定民间金融基本遵循制度和金融监管的标准：凡是在政府金融监管部门监管范围之外的金融活动都属于民间金融(Isaksson，2002)。国内理论界较早使用并界定了这几个概念的学者主要有：姜