中国经济持续增长的原因研究：技术进步路径的视角.docxVIP

中国经济持续增长的原因研究：技术进步路径的视角【内容提要】在总结中国经济增长的典型化事实的基础上，给出中国经济能够顺利实现赶超的理论证明及实现条件，认为技术进步路径将会大致依次经历如下三个阶段：模仿阶段、由模仿向创新过渡阶段和创新阶段。模型中的转移动态分析表明，当某些条件不能得到满足时，动力系统的稳态点就会使得技术进步路径收敛到模仿阶段，国家也因此会陷于经济停滞的模仿陷阱状态。政府可以通过扭曲本国生产要素价格和本币贬值，提高企业获利能力，这对于陷于模仿陷阱的国家摆脱经济停滞状态极为有效，亦能够加快赶超国家的增长速度。如果中国由模仿到创新的过渡阶段业已来临，那么对外模仿、吸引外资对于经济增长的促进作用将会出现下降，而自主研发对于经济增长的贡献会显著上升。要保持经济长期稳定地增长，政府就应逐渐减低对经济的扭曲，将生产资源的定价权逐步交还给市场。Based on the typical facts that sum up Chinas economic growth, we confirm that Chinas economy is able to catch up Successfully and technological advances will be roughly on the path through the following three stages :imitation stage, from imitation to innovation transitional period and the innovation stage. The dynamic analysis in this model shows that when certain conditions are not met, the steady-state point of the power system would be converged to imitation stage, so the country be therefore caught in the trap state of economic stagnation. If the government can distort domestic prices of production factors and devaluate native currency to improve corporates profitability, it is extremely effective that for the countries caught in the trap outof economic stagnation, and to accelerate the growth rate of the catch -up country. if the advent of the transitional phase from imitation to innovation of China are coming, the promoting role to economic growth of imitation and FDI will be decreased, while the contribution of R D for economic growth will be increased significantly. To maintain long-term stable economic growth, the government should reduce the distortions in the economy, and take the power of making resources price returned to the market gradually.【关 键 词】模仿/创新/技术进步路径/中国经济增长?imitation/innovation/path of technological progress/Chinss economic growthEE322UU8392779?中图分类号：FD61.2；F120.3　文献标识码：A　文章编号：1002－9753（2010）04－0050－12?一、问题的提出?凭借着改革以来自身强劲的经济增长，中国在世界经济和国际事务上的影响力，在过去的三十年中迅速扩大。安格斯·麦迪逊（2008）认为这种扩大“对一些人来说这是个威胁，对另一些人来说这又是希望之所在，但对大多数人来说这是个不解之谜”[1]。关于中国经济迅速增长的原因，以及这种增长是否可以持续，经济学界从众多角度给出解释。?改革以来，