基于数理统计与网络分析方法的战争与贸易关系实证分析-empirical analysis of the relationship between war and trade based on mathematical statistics and network analysis methods.docxVIP

摘要战争与贸易的关系问题具有重要的研究价值。在贸易全球化的时代背景下， 贸易是否促进了和平？当国家间因为某种原因而导致关系紧张时，国家当权者在 战争收益与贸易利益面前做何选择？战争与贸易之间究竟具有怎样的联系？本文以贸易对战争的影响为研究主题，首先简要回顾了国际战争数据定量研 究的历程，简述了社会网络分析方法在国际关系数据研究中的应用，在对相关数 据集进行收集和整理后，运用基本的统计分析和网络整体特征分析来揭示国际战 争的特点和二战后国际贸易的特点；研究了一个基于和平帕累托最优理论的 “战 争—贸易”模型，并通过引入机会成本理论对该模型的暗示结论进行了实证分析， 证实了多边贸易开放性对战争的对立影响效应结论；最后运用社会支持网络理论 对国际关系体系的多重性特点和关系构成特点进行理解和描述，并运用社会网络 分析方法对关系网络结构特征进行分析，提出了多重关系影响下的机会成本问题， 据此将贸易对战争的影响研究进行了扩展。主题词：贸易与战争机会成本网络可视化多重关系网络ABSTRACTThe relationship between war and trade has important research value. On the time of world trade globalization, is the trade good for the promotion of the peace? When the relationship between countries became tension for some reason, which will state authorities prefer to interest income or trading options? What is the relationship between war and trade?In this paper, the topic of research is the impact of trade on war, After a brief review of the first quantitative study of international war, the outlines the social network analysis in international relations research in the application of the relevant data sets in the collection and after using basic statistical analysis and network analysis to reveal the overall features of the characteristics of international war and the characteristics of international trade after World War II; of a peace based on Pareto optimality theory war - trade model, and the opportunity cost theory by introducing conclusions of the model suggests an empirical analysis, confirmed the opening of the multilateral trade impact of the war against effect conclusions; finally a social support network theory of the system of international relations and relations constitute a multiplicity of features to understand and describe the characteristics and use of social Analysis of the relationship between network characteristics of network analysis, under the influence of the multiple relations opportunity cost, and accordingly the impact of trade on war studies were extended.Key Words：Trade and War Opportunity Cost