行为金融学在我国证市场的应用毕业论文.docxVIP

行为金融学在我国证券市场的应用摘 要上个世纪70年代以来，有效市场假说一方面不断得到实证检验的支持；另一方面，经过诸多学者的不懈努力，在理论上不断完善，最终发展成主流金融理论的一块基石。但进入到80年代后，金融市场出现了大量悖于“理性人假说”和“有效市场假说”的异象，诸如动量效应、反转效应等等，从而使传统金融理论受到了严重挑战。行为金融理论是20世纪80年代兴起的新兴理论，近年来影响不断扩大，对传统金融理论形成了强有力的挑战。它放松了传统金融理论的理性人假定，从更人性化和社会化的角度研究分析人类决策行为，在认知偏差和有限套利的基础上建立自己的理论体系。它对人类个体和群体行为研究的重视，使我们看到了金融理论与实际的沟壑有了弥补的可能。对于我国这样一个投资者中个人投资者占绝大多数比重，有着较高换手率和市盈率，且信息严重不对称的股票市场，加之发展历程较短，证券投资者的行为表现出相当程度的非理性，用基于投资者完全理性和有效市场假设的传统金融理论去研究并不是很合适。而行为金融理论则为我们提供了一个分析我国证券市场的较为有效的工具。行为金融学从投资者的实际决策心理出发，重新审视主宰金融市场的人的因素对市场的影响，初步揭开了投资者的实际决策过程这一“黑箱”，较好的揭示了人们在不确定状态下的实际判断和决策过程，从而对资本市场上投资者的实际决策具有积极的指导意义。本文共分四章，第一章，阐述传统金融理论在金融学的地位及其在现实生活中面临的困境；第二章，论文回顾了有效市场假说的衰落和行为金融学兴起的背景，详细介绍行为金融的基础理论和理论模型；第三章，介绍我国证券市场的特点，行为金融学对我国证券市场现象的解释和个人投资者、机构投资者及国家金融部门对行为金融学的应用，并对国内的投资者提出基于行为金融学的投资策略，以供参考；第四章，分析行为金融存在的局限，并针对局限，提出行为金融学在我国发展和完善的前景。关键词：行为金融学；证券市场；发展前景AbstractEfficient market hypothesis had become a dominant paradigm in finance because of many scholars’theoretical contribution, as long as many supported empirical evidence since 1970s. However, the financial market appeared a large number of abnormal phenomena which were contrary to the “rational hypothesis” and “efficient market hypothesis” after the 1980s, such as the momentum effect, the reverse effect. Thus the traditional financial theory began to face a serious challenge. Behavioral Finance is a new developing theory that is rising in eighties 20th century. It has expanded its influence constantly in recent years, and has formed the powerful challenge to the traditional financial theory. It relaxes the traditional financial theory of rationality hypothesis, studies human decision behavior from humanization and socialization perspective and builds its own theory on cognitive biases and limited arbitrage. Its emphasis on the individual and colony’s behavior make it possible that financial theory and reality can be integrated. The individual investors are in a great proportion in our country’s stock market; the exchange rate and P/E of stocks are comparat