Risk and Uncertainty Research Frontiers in the Economics of 经济学中的风险和不确定性的的研究前沿.pptVIP

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2018-06-18 发布于福建
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Risk and Uncertainty Research Frontiers in the Economics of 经济学中的风险和不确定性的的研究前沿.ppt

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Risk and Uncertainty Research Frontiers in the Economics of 经济学中的风险和不确定性的的研究前沿

Irvine May 2007 UCSB Bren School of Environmental Management Risk, Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change: Research Frontiers and Opportunities Prof. Charles D. Kolstad University of California, Santa Barbara and Resources for the Future WSWC/CDWR Climate Change Research Needs Workshop, Irvine, May 17, 2007 Structure of Presentation Part I Remarks on Risk and Uncertainty in Climate Part II Remarks on research frontiers in economics of climate change Just what are we talking about? Uncertainty vs. Risk Risk – we sort of understand the probabilities (eg, hurricanes in the Gulf) Uncertainty – we don’t really even understand how likely or unlikely things are (eg, shut down of Gulf Stream). Most climate consequences. Abrupt change: regime shift, something new happens quickly, gets out of hand, snowballs – chaotic Catastrophe: something really big happens, though perhaps slowly, perhaps quickly (eg, sea level creeps up at 1 meter a decade, steadily) Just what are we talking about II? Physical changes Gulf stream shutdown Ice Sheet collapse Economic disruptions from small physical changes Infrastructure overload Financial markets collapse Mass migration Social and Political Crises from small physical changes Wars over resources (eg, Pakistan-India) Rumsfeld on Uncertainty Frank Knight’s TypologyRisk and Uncertainty in Economics Three kinds of probabilities (Knight, 1921) Clear objective ones like the flip of a coin Statistical ones like the probability of rain in September in Santa Barbara Estimated ones like the probability of THC shutdown from a 3o global temperature rise (where there is no basis for statistical estimates) We can get a handle on the first two BUT, some things are just not knowable from direct statistical observation (“non-ergodic theorem”) Climate Change: What can be done? Mitigation Slow additions to atmosphere of GHG Take action to sequester carbon Adaptation Private – individuals and firms take action to reduce vulnerability and impac