Simulation Model - Cal Poly Pomona仿真模型-加州波莫纳.pptVIP

Simulation Models (Henry C. Co) Computer Simulation Henry C. Co Technology and Operations Management, California Polytechnic and State University Simulation Model Simulation: a descriptive technique that enables a decision maker to evaluate the behavior of a model under various conditions. Simulation models complex situations Models are simple to use and understand Models can play “what if” experiments Extensive software packages available Analytic models: values of decision variables are the outputs. Simulation models: values of decision variables are the inputs. Investigate the impacts on certain parameters when these values change. Why Simulation? Analytic models May be difficult or impossible to obtain. Typically predict only average or steady-state behavior. Simulation models Wide availability of software and more powerful PCs make implementation much easier than before. More realistic random factors can be incorporated. Easier to understand. Simulation Process Identify the problem Develop the simulation model Test the model Develop the experiments Run the simulation and evaluate results Repeat until results are satisfactory Implementation Identify the boundaries of the system of interest. Identify the random variables, decision variables, parameters, and the performance measure(s). Develop an objective function for the performance measure(s) in terms of random variables, decision variables, and parameters. Use computer to generate the simulated values of these random variables. Compute the values of the objective function using these simulated values of random variables and values of decision variables. Statistical analysis. Monte Carlo Simulation Monte Carlo method: Probabilistic simulation technique used when a process has a random component Identify a probability distribution Setup intervals of random numbers to match probability distribution Obtain the random numbers Interpret the results Major Components of Models Random input factors: sales,