管理者过度自信与公司债务期限结构的实证分析--以我国上市公司为例-empirical analysis of managers overconfidence and corporate debt maturity structure - a case study of listed companies in china.docxVIP

ABSTRACTCorporate financing behavior has always been one of the hot issue of financial theories field. Based on the hypothesis of the rational decision，traditional financetheory makes on the corporate financing strategy selection of theoritical study and empirical tests. Based on company of behavioral finance theory development, scholars realize that irrational managers impact on corporate financing decision. This paper is based on the point of the irrational managers, discard the traditional theory of rational managers hypothesis, trying to research listed companies on Chinese managers overconfidence behavior whether and how to affect the companys debtmaturity structure。the financing structure of the paper is mainly debt financingstructure。In the above background, this paper firstly summarizes the managers’ overconfidence reason, the financing way and the managers’ overconfidence alternative indicator. Secondly, in view of Chinas specific conditions, analysis our listed companys financing environment and financing activities, Third, throngh building the multiple regression model , empirical analysis the managers’ overconfidence tend to choose financing debt or equity financing, analysis the managers’ overconfidence how to affect commercial credit financing; Also studies the overconfidence managers in the debt financing in favour of short-term loan or long-term loan. The empirical results show that managers’ overconfidence and asset-liability ratio are significantly negative correlation and the commercial credit financing are negative correlation and the debt maturity structure are significantly positive.To measure managers’ overconfidence, this paper refers to the point view of Liu, Hu and Chen (2005). So this paper adopts the performance prediction deviation to measure managers’ overconfidence.The paper draw the conclusion: the managers’ overconfidence affect the company financing structure, overconfidence managers overestimate their own company’s ability to crea