甘肃省水资源利用变化的结构分解分析——以1997年-2002年为例-structural decomposition analysis of water resources utilization change in gansu province a case study from 1997 to 2002.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE IV正的，这表明在不考虑最终需求水平和用水强度的情况下，生产技术的改变导致了本地用水量的增加；⑤最终需求变化的影响中，除畜牧业以外，其他产业的最 终需求值均为正数，说明其他因素不变的情况下，最终需求的增加会导致本地用 水量的增加，这是由于在所研究的时间段中消耗和投入水平都有所增长所致；⑥ 通过对三个影响因素的综合研究可以发现，种植业在三个因素上的影响占各产业 总影响的比例最大，这说明甘肃省本地用水量变化主要由种植业的变化决定。最后，总结了研究工作中的不足之处，并对今后的深入研究提出了设想和建 议。指出在今后的研究中可以基于 IPAT 等式对影响因素进行更细致、深入的分 解。关键词：投入产出分析；结构分解分析；路径基础法；最大熵法；水资源利用量； 甘肃省AbstractIn recent years, the problem of water shortage becomes more and more serious because of natural and human factors, and water crisis has been the bottleneck of economic and social development in China. The precondition of achieving sustainable development of human society, economy and environment is to make a detailed analysis of the changes of water resource use. By using the structural decomposition analysis to evaluate the changes of use in relation to water resource, we can find what main factors influence the changes, and then provide scientific stratagem for policy maker. In this paper, taking Gansu province as a research area, we investigate the changes in local water resource use from 1997 to 2002.First of all, briefly introduced the basic concept, principle and calculation method of input-output analysis, and then proposed that input-output model has a defect which can only make a static analysis on certain period of time. On this basic, explained the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) based on input-output model, which can provide a theoretical foundation for studying the changes in water use of Gansu province. Given traditional SDA suffers from the non-uniqueness’ problem, so we proposed the path-based method (PBM) to solve this issue, and proposed a methodology using maximum entropy econometrics to estimate the parameter valueθ .Secondly, summarized the economic situation and the status of water use in Gansu province. Analysis showed that Gansu province belongs to economically undeveloped area. It had a slower GDP growth, and decreased quality of economic growth. Meanwhile, the situation of water resource u