管理者过度自信与企业过度投资行为分析-analysis of managers overconfidence and enterprises overinvestment behavior.docxVIP

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文摘要近二十年来的国内外公司金融研究表明，企业投资支出与企业内部现金流存在显著相关关 系，并存在非效率的过度投资行为损害股东和相关主体的利益。在理性人假设基础上，主流研 究分别提出了企业投资的“融资约束假说”和“自由现金流假说”，却无法完全解释这种非效率 投资的存在。大量心理学实验证实，管理者普遍存在过度自信的心理偏误。本文尝试借鉴和发 展新兴的行为金融研究成果，研究我国上市公司管理者过度自信心理对企业投资一现金流敏感 性以及投资效率的影响，并检验了针对其提出的相关制约机制的制约效果，以期为非效率投资 治理提供依据。本文从行为金融视角出发，首先对上市公司业绩预测状况进行分析，以其为代理指标对我 国上市公司管理者过度自信程度进行了测度，得到了其具体的测度指标值，并对其分布特征进 行了分析。再在此基础上对我国上市公司高管人员过度自信与企业投资行为的关系进行了理论 分析与实证研究。通过实证研究，本文得出如下结论：第一，当过度自信程度增加时，企业管理者进行投资 并非抓住了好的投资机会，而是越来越严重地背离了这些潜在的投资机会。第二，本文所定义 的过度自信的程度不是直接正向地作用在企业过度投资的增加上面的。投资增长率与自由现金 流变量、过度自信一自由现金流变量之间都存在着显著的正相关关系。第三，对西方学者针对 过度自信导致的企业过度投资行为提出的非传统的制约方式——额外债务、现金股利政策和独 立董事政策，进行检验后发现，只有额外债务在我国能够起到抑制过度自信带来的过度投资问 题。关键词：行为公司金融，过度自信，投资现金流敏感性，过度投资制约机制管理者过度自信与企业过度投资行为研究AbstractThe overseas and domestic financial studies in the recent in twenty years have both certified significant correlations between corporate investments and internal cash flows and the existence of inefficient over-investment behavior ，which harms the interests of shareholders and other relatedparties. Based on the rational person hypothesis，mainstream studies put forth investment theories such as the financial constraint hypothesis or the free cash flow hypothesis，which can not fullyexplain the existence of this non-efficiency investments. However，a great deal of psychological experiments has proved that over confidence is prevalent among corporate managers. This paper tries to lean from and push forward the emerging behavioral financial research，and study managerialoverconfidence of Chinese listed companies as well as its effect investment-cash flow sensitivity and investment efficiency.This paper makes an analysis about corporation performance prediction, and then this paper uses the outcome to measure the degree of the managerial overconfidence and over-pessimism, and makes an analysis about the distribution. Based on these measurements, this paper studies the relationship between managerial overconfidence and over-pessimism in Chinese listed companies and corpor