《国际货币评论》2011年度第3期总第8期.pdfVIP

2011年第 3 期 总第 8 期 * 泡沫、实体经济与金融危机：一个周期分析框架 陈雨露 马勇1 内容提要：本文首次从市场主体投资行为的角度，为分析泡沫、实体经济和金融危机之 间的作用机制提供了一个完整的周期性框架。这一框架突破了主流文献在局部均衡分析中的 不足，将视角扩展至整个泡沫经济和金融危机形成、发展和崩溃的全过程。在这一框架下， 本文不仅对泡沫经济推动的周期性金融危机的基本机制和主要特征进行了分析，而且对金融 危机发展过程中的价格、利率和信贷机制提供了新的、更加贴近现实的解释。通过纳入信贷 市场的承诺本质和信贷资金供求的高度彼此依赖性，本文强调，市场过程内生于市场主体的 投资行为之中，对市场过程本身的认识是理解泡沫经济和金融危机生成机制的关键。只有从 金融与实体经济的持续反馈机制中去认识危机过程中的价格、利率和信贷机制，才能动态地 理解泡沫经济推动金融危机的渐进过程，并为泡沫的识别与危机的防范提供了现实的依据。 关键词：泡沫 周期 实体经济 金融危机 Bubble, Real Economy and Financial Crisis: A Cyclical Framework CHEN Yu-lu MA Yong (China Financial Policy Research Center, Beijing, 100872) Abstract: this paper provides a comprehensive cyclical framework for analyzing the interactive mechanism between bubble, real economy and financial crisis from the perspective of market investment behavior. This framework contributes to the existing literature of partial equilibrium analysis in extending its application to the whole process of the formation, development and crash of bubble economy and financial crisis. Under this framework, this paper not only gives insights to the basic mechanism and major characteristics of cyclical financial crisis propagated by bubble economy, but also provides new and realistic explanations for the price, interest and credit dynamics in this process. By incorporating the unique feature of credit market, where promises dominant the exchange motive and the supply and demand are highly dependent on each other, this paper emphasizes that the cognition of the market process itself is the key to understand the path how bubble economy and financial crisis fulfill themselves. Only when the * 本研究得到教育部重大攻关课题“全球新型金融危机与中国外汇储备问题研究”（08JZD0011