山东省职工基本养老保险基金收支精算预测分析-actuarial forecast analysis of basic old-age insurance fund for employees in shandong province.docxVIP

摘要 摘要 I I 摘 要 山东省作为经济和人口大省，城镇职工养老保险制度的健康运行关系到整个 社会的经济发展，但人口老龄化趋势的加剧，使得我省面临巨大的养老金支付压 力，未来收不抵支的风险将越来越大。因此，通过建立精算模型对山东省未来养 老保险基金的收支进行科学合理的预测，具有重要的现实意义。本文通过对影响 养老保险基金收入和支出的因素分析，进而建立精算模型，进行实证分析，预测 2015-2030 年间山东城镇职工基本养老保险统筹账户基金收支状况，并对做实个 人账户所需的资金规模进行预测，并根据预测情况提出了有针对性的政策措施。 本论文共分为 6 章： 第一章为绪论。介绍了论文的研究背景、研究目的和意义、研究方法及思路、 本文的创新之处以及相关文献综述。 第二章介绍了我国基本养老保险制度的历史沿革、基本养老保险的内容和山 东省城镇职工基本养老保险的发展现状。 第三章对影响养老保险基金收入和支出的因素进行了分析,并作出了相应的 解释。 第四章运用社会保险精算理论，建立养老保险收入模型和养老保险支出模 型。 第五章运用 PADIS-INT 软件，对 2015-2030 年山东省城镇职工劳动年龄人口 和退休人口进行了预测，并对山东省未来的养老保险基金缺口规模进行了预测分 析，并预测了不同方案下做实个人账户所需要的资金规模。 第六章通过前几章的模型预测结果，得出了结论，并提出了有针对性的建议。 关键词:人口老龄化 精算模型 人口预测 做实个人账户 Abstract Shandong as an economic and populous Province ，Endowment insurance system for urban workers is related to the healthy development of the whole running of society,But the trend of increasing aging population, so that the province 山东省城镇职工基本养老保险未来收支情况预测 山东省城镇职工基本养老保险未来收支情况预测 II II is facing tremendous pressure about pension payment，the risk of Revenue less than Expenditure is getting more in the future。Through establishing the actuarial model, it conducts a scientific and reasonable prediction of the balance of payment of the future endowment insurance fund in Shandong province, which has the vital practical significance. In this paper, through the analysis of the influence factors of the fund balance of payment of endowment insurance fund to establish an actuarial model for the empirical analysis, it predicted the balance of payment of Shangdong urban employees’ basic endowment insurance pooling account fund during 2015-2030, and predicted the funds size that the individual account needed. According to prediction, it proposed the targeted policy measures. The paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is an introduction, in this chapter including research background , research goal and the significance, research methods and ideas, innovations of the paper and related literature review. The second chapter introduces the history