市郊轨道交通与土地利用互动模型分析-analysis of interaction model between suburban rail transit and land use.docxVIP

华 华 中 科 技 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II II Abstract Most domestic cities have gradually turning into the distensibility stage of development, many cities began to develop group city, along with the construction of suburban rail. This article attempts to focus on suburban rail system, explore the interactions between suburban rail way and suburban land use, so people can make better use of suburban railway to guide the construction of group city. This paper starts with the analyze of the formation and structure characteristics of suburban new town, studied the suburban railway’s positive influence on suburban new town development and the influence of the new town’s land use to suburban railway passenger flow; And then uses stepwise regression method to choose from the multiple factors that influences the new town’s land use, establishes the regression model of a suburban rail site’s influence to the surrounding residential and commercial land price. On this basis, this article uses system dynamics to analysis the interactions between suburban new town development and suburban railway, establishes a traffic demand forecasting model. The results of the study show that, suburban railway shortens the distance between suburban new town and city center, optimizes the new suburb urban layout, and becoming the core power to drive the new town’s development. Suburban railway can improve new town’s land use morphology, properties and strength, and at the same time, new town’s land use properties and volume rate can also influences the production of suburban rail passenger flow. Early in the new town’s construction, suburban rail system traffic demand can be rising unrestrictedly until the development of new town enters a stable stage; when new town matures, the land use status of new town becomes more important to the production of suburban railway passenger flow. Key words: suburban railway land use land price traffic demand forecasting system dynamics. PAGE IV PAGE IV 目 录 摘 要(I) HY