武汉市房地产业与国民经济发展协调性分析论文.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 16 毕 业 设 计（论 文） 题 目 武汉市房地产业与国民经济发展 协调性分析 姓 名 学 号 所在学院 土木工程与建筑学院 专业班级 2007级工程管理 指导教师 日 期 摘要 近年来我国包括商品住宅开发在内的房地产投资增长速度加快，对国民经济的增长起到了很好的带动作用。本文主要研究武汉市房地产开发投资、住宅投资和固定资产投资对GDP是否存在均衡关系和Granger因果关系，以及三者的波动是否有助于对GDP的波动进行预测。通过研究武汉市相关投资与社会经济的协调发展关系，为武汉市政府制定相关产业政策提供一定的参考依据。 研究中采用ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验和Granger因果检验的方法，研究结果表明，在长期内，武汉市固定资产投资、房地产开发投资和住宅投资与GDP之间存在着均衡关系。固定资产投资每增加1%，GDP增加0.774%；房地产开发投资每增加1%，GDP增加0.600%；住宅投资每增加1%，GDP增加0.510%。并且三者对GDP均存在显著的单向因果关系。武汉市固定资产投资、房地产开发投资和住宅投资的增加都会对国民经济的增长起到明显的带动作用。研究三者的波动有助于对GDP的波动进行预测。一旦固定资产投资、房地产开发投资和住宅投资出现下滑趋势，将给GDP带来巨大的负面影响；而固定资产投资、房地产开发投资和住宅投资的增加，则会促进国民经济的增长。 关键词：房地产投资；GDP；ADF单位根检验；协整检验；Granger因果检验 Abstract In recent years, the rapid rise in real estate investment, including the investment of commercial housing, plays the leading role in the growth of the national economy. The purpose of this paper is to explore whether real estate investment, residential investment and fixed asset investment has equilibrium relationship as well as Granger causal relationship with GDP and whether their fluctuations contribute to the GDP forecast. Through researching the coordinated and developed relationship between Wuhan related investment and social economy, it will provide a frame of reference for the Wuhan municipal government to formulate policies about related industries. The ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test were employed in the paper. The results show that in the long term, fixed-asset investment, real estate investment and residential investment in Wuhan all has equilibrium relationship with GDP. Investment in fixed assets for each additional 1%, GDP increases of 0.774%; real estate development investment for every increase of 1%, GDP increases of 0.600%; residential investment for each additional 1%, GDP increases of 0.510%.And they have significant one-way causality to GDP. The increasing investment in fixed assets, real estate investment and residential investment will play a sig