Chapter 4, HeizerRender, 5th and 7th edition文档.pptVIP

What is Forecasting? Types of Forecasts Economic forecasts Address business cycle, e.g., inflation rate, money supply etc. Technological forecasts Predict rate of technological progress Predict acceptance of new product Demand forecasts Predict sales of existing product Types of Forecasts by Time Horizon Short-range forecast Up to 1 year; usually less than 3 months Job scheduling, worker assignments Medium-range forecast 3 months to 3 years Sales production planning, purchasing, budgeting Long-range forecast 3+ years New product planning, facility location What Do We Forecast - Aggregation Realities of Forecasting Forecasts are seldom perfect Most forecasting methods assume that there is some underlying stability in the system Both product family and aggregated product forecasts are more accurate than individual product forecasts Trend Component Persistent, overall upward or downward pattern Due to population, technology etc. Several years duration Seasonal Component Regular pattern of up down fluctuations Due to weather, customs etc. Cyclical Component Repeating up down movements Due to interactions of factors influencing economy Usually 2-10 years duration Product Demand Forecasting Approaches Overview of Qualitative Methods Jury of executive opinion Pool opinions of high-level executives, sometimes augmented by statistical models Delphi method Panel of experts, queried iteratively Sales force composite Estimates from individual salespersons are reviewed for reasonableness, then aggregated Consumer Market Survey Ask the customer Overview of Quantitative Approaches Na?ve approach Moving averages Exponential smoothing Trend projection Seasonal variation Linear regression Naive Approach Simple Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment Seasonal Variation Seasonal Variation Overview of Quantitative Approaches Na?ve approach Moving averages Exponential smoothing Trend projection Seasonal variation